In what state does President Joseph Kabila leave the Democratic Republic of the Congo?

At the end of December a presidential election was held in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (D.R.C.), which will bring President Joseph Kabila’s period in office to a close (link).  It’s a good time to consider in what state he leaves the D.R.C.  As it turns out, despite much criticism of his government, some aspects of the D.R.C.’s economy and social outcomes are quite strong compared to other countries with a similar income per person.  However, if the presidential election is perceived as unfair and people contest the results, both the economy and social services could be severely damaged.

Economic growth
The D.R.C. is one of the poorest countries in the world, measured by how much an average person can buy (measured in GDP per person in purchasing power parity (PPP)).  But it has been growing quite strongly in recent years, with an average annual growth rate of 2.7 percent from 2013 to 2017.  Indeed, before the political crisis of 2016-2017, only twenty countries grew more quickly. [1]
 
Figure 1 shows growth rate plotted against GDP per person, for countries with income less than 10,000 U.S. dollars per person in PPP.  The black cross marks the D.R.C., with low income but quite high growth.  The fitted curve (based on a quadratic function and the country data) shows the expected growth rate at each value of GDP per person.  Countries below the curve have a lower than expected growth rate at their value of GDP per person, and countries above the curve have higher than expected growth rates.  The D.R.C. growth rate is higher than expected.
 
Figure 1. Growth rate plotted against GDP per person for countries with income below US$10,000 (PPP)

Notes: The D.R.C. is marked with an X.  Growth rates are averages from 2013 to 2017 inclusive.  Growth rates and GDPs per person are in PPP.
 
Inequality
Inequality in the D.R.C. is above average by international standards.  It is around the same rate (measured by the Gini index, and equal to 42) as the United States and China, but below the rates in most of its neighbouring countries [2].  Figure 2 shows inequality plotted against GDP per person in PPP, for countries with income less than 10,000 U.S. dollars.  The black cross marks the D.R.C. with an above average inequality rate.  The fitted curve (from a quadratic function) shows the expected inequality at each value of GDP per person.  Countries below the curve have lower than expected inequality at their value of GDP per person, while countries above the curve have higher than expected inequality.  The D.R.C. inequality is higher than expected.
 
Figure 2. Inequality plotted against GDP per person for countries with income below US$10,000 (PPP)

Notes: The D.R.C. is marked with an X.
 
Literacy
The literacy rate in the D.R.C. is 76 percent for adults, which is quite high for a country with low income per person.  The youth (people aged 15 to 24) literacy rate is a better indicator of education during the period of the Kabila government.  The youth literacy rate is 84 percent, which is higher than the rate in most neighbouring countries [3].
 
Figure 3 shows youth literacy plotted against GDP per person in PPP, for countries with income less than 10,000 U.S. dollars.  The black cross marks the D.R.C., with high youth literacy for its income.  The fitted curve (from a quadratic function) shows the expected youth literacy at each value of GDP per person.  Countries below the curve have lower than expected youth literacy at their value of GDP per person, while countries above the curve have higher than expected youth literacy.  The D.R.C. youth literacy is much higher than expected.
 
Figure 3. Youth literacy plotted against GDP per person for countries with income below US$10,000 (PPP)

Notes: The D.R.C. is marked with an X.  Youths are defined as people aged 15 to 24.
 
Life expectancy
Life expectancy in the D.R.C. is 59.6 years, which is close to the average for low income countries but much lower than high income countries.  The life expectancy is also close to the average for its neighbouring countries [4].  Figure 4 shows life expectancy plotted against GDP per person in PPP, for countries with income less than 10,000 U.S. dollars.  The black cross marks the D.R.C. with a low life expectancy compared with most countries.  The fitted curve (from a quadratic function) shows the expected life expectancy at each value of GDP per person.  Countries below the curve have lower than expected life expectancy at their value of GDP per person, while countries above the curve have higher than expected life expectancy.  The D.R.C. life expectancy is very slightly lower than expected.
 
Figure 4. Life expectancy plotted against GDP per person for countries with income below US$10,000 (PPP)

Notes: The D.R.C. is marked with an X.
 
Summary
The Kabila government relinquishes power with the D.R.C. performing well in some important economic and social measures compared with other low income countries.  Economic growth and literacy are better than expected, while life expectancy is close to expectations.  Inequality is above expectations, but below regional averages.  It’s a base on which the new president can build, if they have the will and political skills to avoid conflict after disputed election results (link).
 
Footnotes:
[1] The data here and in the figures is from the World Bank (link).  The World Bank says its data is “compiled from officially recognized international sources”, but there are many ways that the data could be inaccurate (for example, in the D.R.C., it is difficult to observe people working and trading in isolated areas so it is difficult to estimate the size of the economy there).  The data is uncertain, and the accuracy of my comments will be affected by the uncertainty.
[2] For comparison, a list of Gini coefficients is at link. The data is slightly different from ours.
[3] Link
[4] Link